June New Unit RV Shipments
When the new RV shipments report from RVIA hit my desk this morning, I was a little hesitant to open it. It’s one thing to call up two or three dealers in California and have them tell you sales are down by 70 percent, it’s quite another to have a detailed report from an association that takes painstaking care to make sure its reports are correct tell you with factual data that motorized shipments are down by more than 50 percent.
Check Out the June New Unit Shipment Report Here
In an effort to put this in perspective, I called Mac Bryan, RVIA vice president of administration to see if the forecast Dr. Richard Curtin gave at Committee Week in June would be revised. I was told that the data I received today was just sent to Dr. Curtin as well and in 2-3 weeks we may see a revised forecast.
Because so many decisions are made based on what the business environment will be in coming months, Bryan made some points that further put this data in perspective.
- While most economists agree we are in a nationwide recession, there is no evidence to suggest it will not be fairly shallow, short-term one.
- The core baby boomer demographic still represents the greatest potential pool of customers our industry has ever known. Every day they move closer to retirement and the purchase of an RV.
- While new units shipments are down, this has more to do with the national economy and nothing to do with the popularity of RVs. In fact, RVs are more popular than ever and primary demand is very strong.
- The RV industry usually suffers from a recession early on because it is a discretionary purchase but also traditionally pulls out of a recession before other industries.
- The percentage decline in travel trailers is smaller than in the motorized categories. This may indicate the presence of first-time buyers in the market.
I’d love to see some comments on if this data on new unit shipments reflects new unit sales in your local market. How is your dealership doing? Does this snap shot reflect retail business in your area?
September 30th, 2008 at 9:12 am
The economy, Is it mainly Greed that has brought about this downfall, I am all for helping poorer countries rise to a better standard of living, but not losing jobs at home to satisfy the greed of big businesses to make more money, Help should be given to poorer countries to start their own factories,stores,etc, to cater to their own population and not used to send products to the elitist that are bankrolling the making of such products. eventually their standards of living would increase. on a visit to almost any store where can you see made in USA, or UK, or Germany,or France etc
Most western nations worked hard to raise their standard of living, and along comes the Greedy Investors and out go the jobs that employed their own people to these third world countries
Charles
August 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
to mark bensen the numbers might not be in yet but if you live in rv country (elkhart county indiana) were in a recession. unemployment is at 10 percent and getting worse fast even the pepole working 2 or 3 weeks a month. since rv leads the nation in and out of a recession. the rest of you better get ready its not going to be a mild one
July 28th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
“This cycle downturn will eliminate the weaker contenders and allow for the prominent manufacturers, dealers, and suppliers to reanalyze their fit in the market place, causing market efficiencies from niche specialization. Get ready folks, it definitely will get much worse before it gets better” This is going to be so true shortly. What about all the people that are upside down in their rv’s and will not be able to get out from under it. There are so many jammed into everything from pop ups to motor homes that were sold by the large mega dealerships who did not care about the customer, just the sale. These people will not have any way to come back in and buy thanks to the under handed deals of the big guys. Which still continues today. You all know who I am talking about.
July 28th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Can someone show me even one economist who thinks this country is in a recession. By it’s very definition, a recession takes places when a nation’s gross domestic product declines for two months in a row. Since our GDP has not even declined one month, there is no way we can be in a recession and the people at RVIA should know that.
July 28th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
I could write for hours on this subject. Regretfully, there are other signifiers that are much more frightening than the norm - current historical sales data, inventory turn cycles, and back log orders.
What haunts my thoughts the most is the likely forthcoming gas guzzler tax (in a new revised form that applies to conventional trucks, SUVs, motorhomes and the sort), the effects of fierce reduction in truck and SUV production, and the descent in value of retiree’s homes. Yes, the media and their speculation/opinion of the sort has jaded the views of many naieve Americans in present day. However, what is to be made of the industry when in 2 years we feel the effects of having 1/3 the available trucks and the “new” SUVs that are uni-body constructed and fail to muster a modest tow capacity? What about a $7700 gas guzzler tax (yes, in the works on trucks and likely to be changed to a percentage ilo the current flat dollar figure based on economy for cars)? Or, a lack of home equity to purchase extravagant RVs?
Look at everything occurring in the National economy right now and a grim picture is portrayed for the next several years. This cycle downturn will eliminate the weaker contenders and allow for the prominent manufacturers, dealers, and suppliers to reanalyze their fit in the market place, causing market efficiencies from niche specialization. Get ready folks, it definitely will get much worse before it gets better.